With the 2024 presidential election creeping ever closer, Change Research reached out to young voters to get their take on some important questions. If the election were held today, who would they vote for? (Mostly, Joe Biden.) Do they think they’ll ever be able to afford owning a home? (Largely, no.) Do they think the Barbie movie is feminist or sexist? (Mostly, it was just a movie.)
The survey results, which have been shared with Teen Vogue, include responses from 1,033 registered voters between the ages of 18-34. It was conducted between August 25 and September 1: 43% of respondents identify as male; 45% identify as female; 5% identify as trans; 6% identify as nonbinary or gender nonconforming, and 1% identify as other.
If these findings are to be summed up in one sentence, it is this: Young voters are pessimistic about everything from the economy to the direction the country is headed to their ability to handle an unexpected $1,000 expense. Beyond that, they don’t think politicians keep their promises. They blame the Supreme Court for blocking President Biden’s loan forgiveness plan and worry about being able to afford groceries.
There is a striking gender divide in topics such as how young people identify politically (men see themselves as more conservative while women, trans, nonbinary, and gender-nonconforming people are more liberal) and the podcasts they listen to (men are inclined to listen to The Joe Rogan Experience and The Ben Shapiro Show, while women are bigger fans of This American Life and The Daily).
There’s so much to unpack, so let’s dig into some of the most interesting findings. And check out Change’s top line and methodology here.
1. Young women, trans, nonbinary, and gender- nonconforming people lean further to the left than young men.
Forty-one percent of women surveyed identify as politically progressive; only 24% of men do. Meanwhile, 23% of women consider themselves to be liberal, while only 15% of men feel the same; 18% of the men surveyed count themselves as conservative, compared with only 11% of women. Eleven percent of men say they are most aligned with “MAGA,” or Donald Trump’s brand of politics, while only 3% of women do.
The lines here are clear: On the whole, young women are more likely to lean progressive or liberal on the political spectrum than young men. Women are also more likely to approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as president.
Looking to the 2024 election, if President Biden were the Democratic candidate and Donald Trump were the Republican candidate (which seems to be where we’re headed), men are almost evenly split in their support for the two. Forty-three percent of young male voters say they would vote for Biden if the election were held today and 41% say they would vote for Trump; 65% of women say they would cast their vote for Biden and 25% for Trump. An overwhelming 84% of trans, nonbinary, and gender-nonconforming people, who are included in the “other” category because the sample size was too small individually, would vote for Biden, compared with just 7% who would back Trump.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis fared slightly more favorably with young male voters than Trump, with 43% of young men saying they would vote for him against Biden, and slightly less favorably with women, with only 23% who say they would vote for DeSantis against Biden.
The gender divide is also quite visible on the issue of abortion: 39% of men say abortion should be legal in all cases, while 56% of women and 80% of those in the “other” category say the same. On the other side, 28% of men say abortion should be illegal in most cases and 10% of women say the same. Men are more likely to vote for a candidate with whom they disagree on the issue of abortion, while women, trans, nonbinary, and gender-nonconforming people are more likely to say they wouldn’t vote for a candidate who holds a different view on abortion than they do.
2. There are big gender differences in dating interests and pop culture consumption.
Not only do men and women differ politically, divisions can be found in which platforms they frequent, the podcasts they listen to, and what they look for in a romantic partner. Men and women share YouTube as a favorite platform, but women favor Instagram, Facebook, and TikTok more than men by considerable margins.
Thirty-six percent of men and 32% of women are likely to listen to podcasts, but when asked for their views on some of the most popular podcasts in the US, men most commonly report listening to The Joe Rogan Experience and The Ben Shapiro Show, while women favor the New York Times’s The Daily and Ira Glass’s This American Life. Not only are women less likely to listen to Joe Rogan, 55% think listening to him is a red flag in a potential partner.
This is what we’ve all been waiting for, right? Time for red flags and green flags. Among women surveyed, top green flags are potential partners who read, research the best deals and rates before buying, and say Black Lives Matter. Other green flags for women include prospective partners who look better in person (51%), take candid pictures (50%), and identify as liberal (39%).
Green flags offer some overlap between the genders. Men agree that it is a green flag for a prospective partner to read, research best deals and rates before buying, and look better in person. But many also say it is a green flag for a partner to say there are only two genders (46%), own a gun (46%), not be on social media (44%), prefer cow milk over nondairy milk (42%), and identify as conservative (35%).
The biggest red flags among the women surveyed are prospective partners who identify as a MAGA Republican, have no hobbies, say All Lives Matter, say there are only two genders, and are so unbothered they never ask for details.
The top red flags among the men surveyed are prospective partners who identify as communist, have no hobbies, identify as a MAGA Republican, are so unbothered they never ask for details, are into astrology, and say All Lives Matter.
Opinions on “canceling” also differed based on gender. Just over four in 10 men (42%) think that canceling is “a common and serious problem,” compared with just 19% of women.
3. The student debt crisis remains a major issue for young voters.
The Supreme Court’s ruling that blocked President Biden’s student debt relief plan is broadly opposed by young voters. As for blame, there’s plenty to go around: 70% of young voters blame the Court for the decision, 58% blame Republicans in Congress, and 50% blame special interests groups. Only 18% blame Democrats; 15% blame Biden himself.
Young people are extremely stressed about the resumption of student loan payments. While making their student loan payments, 82% are concerned about being able to pay an unexpected $1,000 expense; 70% are concerned about being able to keep up payments for other loans or debts; 67% are worried about making rent or mortgage payments; and 63% are worried about affording groceries.
4. Young voters feel very pessimistic about their economic conditions.
To put it lightly, young voters have a pessimistic economic outlook (and given inflation and record-high rents, who can blame them?). They list cost of living and inflation as their highest-ranked concerns, followed by climate change, political instability, unaffordable housing, and low wages. Sixty-six percent of young voters view the national economy as poor; 42% say the same about their state economy and 34% say the same about their local economy. As for personal finances, only 5% of respondents say they are in excellent shape; 18% responded “good,” 35% responded “fair,” and 40% responded “poor.”
Respondents say they worry they won’t be able to have as many kids as they want, own a home, or be able to retire. They’re not confident that they have an emergency fund to sustain them if they were left without work for three months. Fifty-seven percent say they’re not confident they’ll ever be able to live in a way that isn’t paycheck to paycheck; 46% are not confident they’ll have kids; and 44% are not confident they will afford to live in a neighborhood in which they feel safe.
It seems like rising tuition prices are also changing the way young voters think about a college degree. Only 17% say a college education is always a good investment, while 67% say it sometimes is, and 13% say it rarely is. The type of education they see as most valuable is medical school, followed by apprenticeships; bachelor's degrees in science, technology, engineering or math came in third place.
Of those who had attended college, 35% think it made long-term financial success easier, while 22% say college made that goal harder. Forty-nine percent say college has made it easier to better navigate real-world issues; 46% say it made it easier for them to be a better person; and 42% say college made it easier for them to get a job that pays well.
Other than pay, the three things most important to young voters when looking for a job are work-life balance, benefits, and hours.
5. An overwhelming majority of young people say they’re going to vote in 2024.
Seventy-nine percent of respondents say they are definitely going to vote in the 2024 election (compared with 67% when Change Research posed the same question in October 2022, and 65% in May 2022, in polling collaborations with Teen Vogue). Only 1% say they are definitely not going to vote. If the 2024 election were held today, Joe Biden and Democratic US House of Representative candidates would win the youth vote among respondents.
6. It was the summer of Barbie, Trump indictments, and wildfires.
All hail Greta Gerwig and Margot Robbie — it truly was the summer of Barbie. Of all the pop culture stories presented to respondents, that movie took the top spot as the one the most young voters were following closely. Thirty-one percent say the movie is feminist, while 2% say it is sexist, and 47% say it is “just a movie.”
The next most followed pop culture stories are Barbenheimer and Taylor Swift’s Eras tour.
As for harder news, 78% of young voters say they stay informed on the Russian invasion of Ukraine either “very” or “somewhat” closely, followed by Trump’s multiple indictments at 74%, and the Maui wildfires at 71%.
Stay up-to-date with the politics team. Sign up for the Teen Vogue Take
