As many Republican leaders embrace a message of alarm surrounding LGBTQ+ issues, particularly regarding what is being included in school curriculums and library books, one group historically at odds with the GOP has become a potential ally.
Muslim Americans have made historic political and cultural gains in the past couple of decades since the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, which were followed by a wave of Islamophobic sentiment and suspicion. Most of those gains—from the rise of lawmakers such as Democratic Representatives Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan to the popularity of cultural figures such as comedians Hasan Minhaj and Ramy Youssef—have appeared to align largely with the political left.
But with culturally conservative Republicans increasingly leaning into parents' concerns about public school education and pushing back against LGBTQ+ rights, some Muslim Americans see a potential shift underway. One activist who spoke to Newsweek says many in the community are openly saying they'll "never" vote for Democrats again. Polling data, albeit sparse, also suggests a small shift may have already occurred in the past several elections.
"I think there [are] major shifting dynamics catalyzed by the aggressive behavior against religious groups and the disrespect and disregard of their values. I don't represent all Muslims, but I can see a huge shift," Amer Ghalib, the Muslim mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, tells Newsweek.
Ghalib and Hamtramck drew national attention after the all-Muslim city council passed a resolution in June banning the display of the rainbow Pride flag (along with other religious, ethnic, racial or political flags) on public buildings. The vote highlighted a vitriolic split between local progressives and socially conservative Muslims. While the mayor, who says he's a registered Democrat, does not think Muslim Americans will now automatically vote Republican, he says the GOP has an opening.
"It looks [to be] a great opportunity for Republicans to attract Muslims, especially in the swing states, where Muslim votes can determine the winner there, but nothing comes for free. Good intentions and friendly speech need to be delivered by Republicans before they can gain that huge voting support," he says.
Asra Nomani, a Muslim American author and mother who has criticized what she and others see as the left's indoctrination of children in schools, told Fox News in June she believes a political shift will take place in 2024.
"These woke activists have stirred the mama bears and the papa bears in our Muslim community in a way that is irreversible. This is going to be the wedge issue of 2024 because they are now coming after the children," Nomani, who wrote Woke Army: The Red-Green Alliance That Is Destroying America's Freedom (Bombardier Books, 2023) said.
Estimated to be a community of about 3.45 million, Muslim Americans make up a little more than 1 percent of the U.S. population, according to Pew Research Data from 2017. In swing states like Georgia and Michigan which have relatively large Muslim populations, a major shift in how the community votes could potentially make the difference between which party wins.
"I see a lot of Muslims saying, 'I will never vote for a Democrat again,'" Kareem Monib, a Muslim American who is a co-founder of the Coalition of Virtue, which has advocated against LGBTQ+-focused curriculum and books in public school, tells Newsweek.
But Monib says there's a lot of nuance to how Muslims think about voting. When it comes to the economy, climate change and immigration, he says his community aligns more closely with Democrats than Republicans.
"Muslims will vote according to their values," he says, adding that voters in his community "don't feel like they belong to the Democrat party or the Republican party."
What Polls From Recent Elections Show
AP VoteCast surveys of voters following the 2018 and 2022 midterms showed a notable shift of Muslim Americans from the Democratic Party to the GOP. While a clear majority continued to back Democratic candidates, the Republican share grew by double digits. In 2018, 17 percent of Muslim Americans backed Republicans whereas that jumped to 28 percent just four years later, an increase of 11 percent.
The data are less clear when it comes to comparing the 2016 and 2020 elections. Exit poll surveys conducted by Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) showed a 4-point shift in favor of former President Donald Trump in 2020 compared to 2016. That gave Trump 17 points in his second GOP presidential bid compared to President Joe Biden's 69 percent.
Other polls have shown significantly different levels of Muslim support for Biden and Trump in 2020. The Muslim American organization EmgageUSA, which describes itself as nonpartisan and center-left and endorsed Senator Bernie Sanders in 2020 before getting behind Biden in the general election, conducted a survey that showed 86 percent of Muslim voters backed Biden whereas just 6 percent cast ballots for Trump. AP VoteCast data from 2020, however, showed Trump garnering a substantially higher 35 percent, while Biden still won a clear majority at 64 percent.
Trump himself may be a unique factor that could turn off Muslim voters. Some activists who spoke to Newsweek expressed a specific disdain for the former president, noting his call to block members of their religion from entering the U.S.
He first made the remarks during a 2015 campaign rally in South Carolina following San Bernardino, California, shootings that were carried out by an extremist Islamist couple. Trump told rallygoers he wanted "a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country's representatives can figure out what is going on."
Ultimately as president, Trump pushed through a travel ban via executive order that targeted seven Muslim-majority countries. Critics dubbed the measure a "Muslim ban," and the controversial order was eventually undone by Biden when he took office. More recently, as some Muslim activists point out, Trump vowed to reimplement and expand the travel ban.
"When I return to office, the travel ban is coming back even bigger than before and much stronger than before," the former president told a crowd in Iowa in July.
Besheer Mohamed, a senior researcher at Pew Research Center, tells Newsweek that based on his organization's data from 2007 to 2017, a clear majority of Muslim Americans identified more closely with Democrats. However, he also noted a shift over that decade.
"Through that period, it has also been the case that U.S. Muslims are about twice as likely as the public overall to say they lean toward neither major political party," Mohamed says. The researcher pointed out that the Muslim American community is extremely diverse, which may significantly impact how various Muslim voters align politically.
"Unlike many other religious groups in the U.S., there is no single racial or ethnic group that makes up the majority of Muslim American adults," he says.
"To take the impact of just one of these aspects on political concerns, consider the distinctions between U.S.-born and foreign-born Muslims. On a range of social and economic issues, immigrants are more satisfied and faring better than U.S.-born Muslims," he adds.
When it comes to LGBTQ+ issues specifically, Mohamed says the Muslim community became more accepting between 2007 and 2017, as did the U.S. overall.
"U.S. Muslims have consistently held more conservative views than religiously unaffiliated Americans, but less conservative than white evangelicals. When we last asked about the topic in 2017, Muslims were on par with Black Protestants, with roughly half saying homosexuality should be accepted by society," he says.
Political Impact of LGBTQ+ Issues
The Muslim activists who spoke to Newsweek expressed specific concerns about transgender identity and how this is being taught to children or promoted in books available in schools. They said that, in their view, the teachings of Islam clearly identify two genders and oppose individuals being gay, lesbian or bisexual.
Muslims are not a monolith on the issue. Tlaib and Omar, who made history as the first two Muslim women elected to Congress in 2018, have been outspoken in their support of the LGBTQ+ community throughout their tenure in Congress. When the Hamtramck city council banned the Pride flag, Tlaib slammed the decision.
"I can't imagine how it feels for our LGBTQ+ neighbors in Hamtramck to watch their own elected reps decide their existence doesn't matter. This is painful to see in a city that has always fought for equal justice for all. This action divides our communities," the Michigan representative wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on June 16.
Omar's and Tlaib's offices declined interview requests for this article.
Ghalib tells Newsweek that he wishes elected representatives like Tlaib would defend him and his city from critics, saying some had accused him of "supporting terrorism." The Hamtramck mayor adds, "they won't dare to, but I have the support of my community, and that is what matters to me."
The main issue that has animated many Muslims to align with conservatives is parents' rights to control what their children are being taught in public schools. Republicans and conservative groups promoted the issue with significant success, particularly in some states and local communities, during the 2022 midterms. Muslim activists who spoke with Newsweek say they oppose their children being taught things that they believe conflict with their faith.
"I don't want to call it education, that's giving it too much," Ismail Royer, director of the Islam and Religious Freedom Action Team at the Religious Freedom Institute, tells Newsweek. Royer has been particularly involved with activism in Montgomery County, Maryland, where Muslim parents have joined with Christian and Jewish groups to oppose a local school policy that prevents them from opting their children out of education they believe conflicts with their religious beliefs.
"The idea that you cannot change your sex is a reality-based position and transcendent reality," Royer says."It's harmful to teach children that they can change their sex that they were born with," he continues. Royer says he and others in his coalition believe that the day will come when gender transitions are viewed as "just as harmful and just as cruel and just as unreasonable as lobotomies, foot binding [and] sterilization of quote 'feeble-minded' people."
While the main issue for Muslim parents in Montgomery County right now is the opt-out policy, activists say ideally their movement would shift the nation's thinking on gender and the LGBTQ+ community. They say their views align with those of conservative Christians and Jews and express sadness that society has moved away from Christian values.
"The defeat of Christianity—or the overwhelming of Christianity by atheism, secularism [and] paganism—which I would call atheism and secularism as a sort of paganism—the overwhelming of Christianity by that is actually a catastrophe," Royer says. "It's a catastrophe, practically, for our interests of practicing religious freedom, because we have religious freedom because of the Christian principles that this country was founded on."
Can Republicans Benefit?
For now, Muslim activists who spoke to Newsweek resisted making any endorsements for 2024, saying their efforts are largely focused on the school boards in their communities and local elections. They emphasized repeatedly that there are many areas where they agree more strongly with Democrats than Republicans, but don't really feel they fit into either political party. While they say some Republicans had reached out in support, they are not aware of any concerted effort from the GOP to try and court them as voters.
The Republican National Committee as well as several state-level GOP affiliates did not respond to multiple interview requests for this article.
"We're totally open to working with Republicans and supporting Republicans, just as we're totally open to working with Democrats and supporting Democrats," Royer says. "But we do want to be cautious at this stage."
Wa'el Alzayat, CEO of Emgage, stresses in an interview with Newsweek that a substantial majority of Muslims have continued to back Democrats in recent elections. He also encouraged fellow Muslims to focus any of their frustrations about what is being taught in schools at the local level, saying that national elections would have relatively little impact on those issues anyway.
Alzayat raised specific concerns about how some right-wing leaders have pursued anti-Muslim policies when they've held positions of power.
"As America's most diverse faith group, our needs are not simply resolved by a zero-sum mentality, but rather by nuanced balancing. We have to balance our interests and priorities," he says.
"If somebody says, I'm never voting for this party or that party, or just because this candidate is not right with me on this one issue, is going to leave us always disappointed," the Emgage CEO says. "And so, what we do at Emgage, we look at the whole slate of issues, and we balance them, and we judge candidates by the whole of their agenda and their track record."
Alzayat cautions fellow Muslims to think about the real-world implications of national versus local elections.
"The next president can reinstate the Muslim ban, as Donald Trump has promised he would, but they cannot change the content of books in a locality in America." He warns, "the next president of the United States can hire Islamophobic members of his administration."
Jason Lemon is a weekend editor at Newsweek. Follow him on X @JasonLemon
