Topline
An ice-free Arctic might be just years away, researchers warned on Tuesday, a feared milestone that could arrive even earlier than expected and have far-reaching consequences for the environment, economy and future direction of the climate crisis even if the world manages to slash carbon emissions and shift to greener energy sources.
Polar bears could suffer with melting Arctic ice.
Key Facts
The Arctic could become ice-free for the first time on a late August or early September day in the 2020s or 2030s, according to a new peer reviewed study from researchers at the University of Colorado at Boulder.
The findings, which are published in the journal Nature Reviews Earth & Environment and are based on an analysis of existing climate data, hold under even the most optimistic emissions scenarios and suggest ice-free conditions in the Arctic could arrive as much as 10 years earlier than expected using previous models, which focused on monthly, not daily, periods when the region would be ice-free.
To scientists, the term ice-free doesn’t mean zero ice, as some ice in the region is especially durable, but means the Arctic Ocean has less than 1 million square kilometers of ice, most of which would hug the coastline, though it would have significant impact on the local and global environment.
Consistently ice-free Arctic months in September, Arctic summer, are expected by mid century, the researcher predicted, happening somewhere between 2035 and 2067.
Ice-free summer months around the middle of the century are expected under all emissions scenarios, the researchers said, though the duration the Arctic is ice-free would depend on whether emissions are cut drastically or if emissions stay high under a business-as-usual scenario.
Under the high emissions scenario, the findings predict the Arctic could be free of ice for up to nine months a year, even in some winter months, a situation lead researcher Alexandra Jahn, a professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, said “would transform the Arctic into a completely different environment, from a white summer Arctic to a blue Arctic.”
Why Does Arctic Sea Ice Matter?
In addition to being a very visible indicator of climate change, Arctic ice is an important habitat for the survival of animals like polar bears and seals and plays an important role in reflecting radiation—and, therefore, heat—away from the Earth, meaning its loss could accelerate global warming. The region is also strategically important for global shipping and is a hotbed of natural resources. Change is also happening more rapidly in the Arctic than elsewhere in the world—the region is heating around four times faster than the rest of the globe—and its melting ice has reignited long-simmering geopolitical tensions, with regional powers including Russia, the U.S. and Norway beefing up military presences. Scientists overwhelmingly agree that global heating is a result of human actions that emit warming greenhouse gasses like carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere and that swift and drastic steps to decarbonize the economy are needed in order to avoid catastrophic, potentially irreversible damage.
Crucial Quote
Jahn said that while “ice-free conditions are unavoidable” in the Arctic, it’s important “to keep our emissions as low as possible to avoid prolonged ice-free conditions.” Fortunately, Jahn said the sea ice in the Arctic is resilient and can return under cooler conditions, offering hope of restoring the region in the future. “Unlike the ice sheet in Greenland that took thousands of years to build, even if we melt all the Arctic sea ice, if we can then figure out how to take CO2 back out of the atmosphere in the future to reverse warming, sea ice will come back within a decade,” Jahn said.
Further Reading
