Viewed as a team on the rise entering 2017, the Oakland Raiders returned to their woeful ways, costing coach Jack Del Rio his job 10 months after signing a four-year contract extension.
The Raiders sunk from 12-4 to 6-10 to trigger massive changes: Jon Gruden returned to coaching after sitting in the ESPN booth since 2009, and when training camp started a whopping 42 of the 90 players were new.
The Broncos host Oakland in Week 2 (2:25 p.m.) and travel to the Black Hole in Week 16 (6:15 p.m.).
Here are five questions – and answers – for the Raiders this year:
1. Can Gruden have instant success in his return to coaching?
History says no.
Dick Vermeil retired after the 1982 season in Philadelphia and did not return to coaching until 1997 with St. Louis. His first two Rams teams went 5-11 and 4-12 before winning the Super Bowl.
Joe Gibbs retired after the 1992 season and returned to Washington in 2004. The Redskins went 6-10 in his first year back, but made the playoffs twice in the next three years.
Gruden’s goal for Year 1, besides being competitive, should be to find the right coaches, players and schemes that will make the Raiders a contender in 2019 and beyond.
2. Which of the Raiders’ many new players could make the biggest impact?
There are a lot of choices.
Among the veterans, receiver Jordy Nelson should have some catches left in the tank, cornerback Rashaan Melvin is good in coverage and tailback Doug Martin figures to be a solid complement to Marshawn Lynch.
Among the draft picks, third-round defensive end Arden Key could be a steal if he plays like he did early in his LSU career.
3. Is there any hope the defense will be better?
Well, they can’t be any worse.
The Raiders were last in interceptions (a measly five), 26th on third down, 27th in rushing average and fell from 30 takeaways to only 16.
New defensive coordinator Paul Guenther arrives from Cincinnati and his first task is to find a way to create more interceptions. The Raiders’ five interceptions last year were two fewer than the next-worst team (Cleveland). Half the league had at least 13 interceptions.
Gareon Conley, a 2017 first-round pick, will start opposite Melvin at cornerback and the Raiders need big seasons from safeties Reggie Nelson and Karl Joseph.
4. All of quarterback Derek Carr’s key statistics declined last year. Can he bounce back?
Yes.
His record was worse (12-3 to 6-9). His completion percentage dropped (63.8 to 62.7). His touchdowns decreased (28 to 22). And his interceptions increased (six to 13). But the return of offensive coordinator Greg Olson, who coached Carr as a rookie, should help.
A big key, though, is the addition of Nelson at receiver to join the terrific Amari Cooper. That trio should be a boon for Carr.
5. What is the best case/worst case scenarios for the Raiders?
Best case: All of Gruden’s years at his self-titled FFCA (Fired Football Coaches Association) offices studying the league equals a smooth transition. … The gray-beard tailback duo of Lynch and Martin combine for 1,700 yards. … The overhauled defense fixes their takeaway problem.
Worst case: The Raiders lose their opener (vs. the Rams), triggering a 1-5 start with losses at Denver, at Miami, at the Chargers and to Seattle in London. … Left tackle Donald Penn (broken foot last year) does not return to form, forcing the Raiders to play rookie Kolton Miller.
