In the absence of real hockey, the Boy Genius and Drancer have built juggernaut Vancouver Canucks teams constructed from the best seasons by Canucks players of the past 15 years.
Now that the teams have been selected, Harman and Drance’s Canucks will compete against one another in a tournament and the winner will be awarded the fictional Sedin Cup.
Advertisement
Thanks to the ingenuity of The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn, we can actually rate the teams Dayal and Drance constructed and have them play against one another in a simulated seven-game series. Using Dom’s model, we’ll project how these teams would have performed if you’d subbed them in for the actual 2019-20 Canucks roster in NHL play this season.
Once we’ve determined a projected point totals for both teams, the team that fares better will get home-ice advantage. And then the fun starts, as these two teams will battle in an epic seven-game series for the right to hoist the Sedin Cup.
You can read about the selection draft, the makeup of both teams and the rules of team composition here. Essentially these teams are built of the best single-season Canucks performances over the past 15 years, with the caveat that both rosters have to be cap compliant.
Here’s how the teams stack up:
Before we get to how these teams would project over the course of an 82-game season, here’s the methodology behind Dom’s model and some of the estimates we’ve made:
Basically, I used the Game Score Value Added (GSVA) for each player’s respective season. For example, Henrik Sedin was worth 5.0 wins in 2009-10, the best season by a Canuck in the salary cap era thanks to his strong point production and play-driving ability. GSVA is just Game Score (a combination of box score metrics) translated to a win value above replacement level. For players selected before 2007-08 (before the NHL started collecting real-time stats), we used their point production from the given year and merged it with their play-driving metrics from 2007-08. It’s not ideal, but it’s what we had to do as a workaround.
Each game was “played” in the same way the current season is being simulated in this post: just once, using the win probability for each game based on the strength of each team. In order to squeeze every player into a realistic lineup, we used their per-minute win rate and applied it to an ice time estimate based on each player’s slot in the lineup for that particular game.
Advertisement
You’ll notice that Drance’s Canucks have more “total wins” by GVSA than Dayal’s do, but because Drance has superior depth outside of the 19 players that can dress every night, that may not hold up over the course of an 82 game – particularly assuming full health for both rosters, which we’re doing to keep things simple.
And, in fact, Dayal’s Canucks outperform Drance’s by a narrow margin based on the regular season projection.
The model projects that Dayal’s Canucks would amass a preposterous 125.9 points over an 82-game season, a point total that would exceed any managed by every NHL team in history save for five: the late 1970s Montreal Canadiens on three occasions, the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings and the 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning.
The model projects that Drance’s Canucks would amass a still preposterous, but not quite as good 123.9 points over an 82-game season. That point total would represent the seventh-highest points total in the history of the NHL.
So Dayal’s Canucks get home-ice advantage and enter the Sedin Cup challenge series as the prohibitive favourite, with Dom’s model giving them a 56 percent chance of emerging as the victor.
Before we get started with the simulation, here’s the ground rules we used:
- Dom’s model doesn’t project the score of the games, just the results. To manufacture some drama into the simulation, we’ve all agreed that the winner of each game gets to dictate the narrative of how that particular contest unfolded.
- The first game of the series has to be played by the original lineup as set following the draft. After that, both Drancer and Boy Genius are permitted to make a few roster changes, according to the following rules: ice time can be adjusted but must be realistic within reason, the losing team can make two lineup changes, the winning team can only make one lineup change.
- In the event of a Game 7, both teams can make an unlimited number of roster changes.
And with that, let the Sedin Cup challenge series begin!
Drance: The city of Vancouver is buzzing, Game 1 of the Sedin Cup is here with Harman’s offensive juggernaut the prohibitive favourite …
Dom: Game 1
Harman (Home): 57.9%
Drance (Away): 42.1%
Chance of overtime: 23.5%
Harman, how are you feeling about your chances here?
Harman: Favourites never win, so I’m fully expecting a loss here.
Drance: Classic Canucks.
Dom: That is exactly false, but let’s not allow the Boy Genius any mind game trickery – clearly he’s working at the reverse jinx here.
All right, time to play!
Various computer bleeps and bloops.
Advertisement
Drance: Fans ooh and aah as two absolute juggernauts go toe to toe!
Harman: Insert playoff grit and physicality!
Drance: Twitter explodes because of a borderline Raffi Torres hit!
Dom: Harman wins Game 1 in regulation.
Drance: Damn.
Harman: Really tight defensive game, not a lot of space for both teams and a real goalie’s duel. It’s a 2-1 win in the end as J.T. Miller scores off a tip goal and then Markus Naslund scores the game-winner.
Drance: Postgame dressing room quote: “Wow. Good game, that’s a good team over there. Liked the way we played, but obviously, at this time of year, all that matters is the win and we didn’t get it tonight.”
Changes to my lineup for Game 2 are coming in the form of Mike Santorelli moving to the second line to play right wing. Pavol Demitra moves to the left wing. Tanner Pearson bumped to the fourth line, while Raffi Torres will be scratched in Game 2.
Harman: No lineup changes for my team.
Dom: Game 2
Harman (Home): 55.9%
Drance (Away): 44.1%
Chance of overtime: 23.9%
Drance: Big swing game here!
Dom: Some good changes made with the underrated Santorelli coming into the lineup, will it be enough?
Computer makes a thinking face.
Dom: Drance wins Game 2 in regulation.
Drance: Wild, physical game ends 5-3. Critical moment in the series as an iffy Antoine Roussel hit on Elias Pettersson prompts an over-the-top response from Jason Garrison. Garrison received a five-minute major, and news comes down after the game that he’s been suspended for two additional games in the series – a move that’s heavily criticized in Vancouver. Two big power play goals from Quinn Hughes on the ensuing major penalty ice the game.
….
(There was a long pause as Dom and the Boy Genius tried to process Drance’s previously undiscussed abuse of the winner’s narrative power to suspend a player on Harman’s team.)
Advertisement
…
I’m crying laughing here …
Harman: You just suspended my highest rated defenceman!
Dom: Wait, can he suspend Harman’s player?
Drance: I only went two games, but yeah, dick move.
Dom: Harman, appeal the suspension!
Drance: The suspension could be overturned when Harman next wins a game and he gets the winner’s narrative power …
Harman: Vancouver fans curse the league for an unfair suspension. Roussel’s social media is full of toxic fans threatening him for having dared to touch Petey.
Postgame quote: “High energy game, but we got to learn to keep our emotions in check. We want to protect our guys, but we can’t give their PP any life.”
Drance: Though he’s not in any way involved in disciplinary decisions in this series, since it’s taking place outside the scope of NHL play, Vancouver fans are still very mad at Colin Campbell for some reason.
Harman: Lineup changes: Rome obviously in for Garrison. That third pair is going to play like 10 minutes. Up front, we’re going to break up the West Coast Express so the team is tighter defensively. Naslund and Toffoli swap. Bertuzzi and Raymond swap.
Drance: No changes on my end.
Now this series has some feeling. The public adores Harman’s high-flying squad, criticizes my team at length for their dirty tricks. A sportswriter in Alberta says that my all-time Canucks team is an affront to the sport and that the style of hockey they play is better described as “Irish football rather than hockey.”
Lots of speculation about how Aaron Rome will hold up on the third pair as the series shifts to my team’s home ice. Some chatter suggests that my Canucks have better depth, and that may make the difference in the series!
Dom: Game 3
Drance (Home): 59.4%
Harman (Away): 40.6%
Chance of overtime: 23.3%
Drance: Let’s goooo!
Pregame tweet from @taj1944 is read on the Sportsnet broadcast: “Jason Garrison is a hero. Taking one for the team to get Aaron Rome into the lineup. True leadership. #easymoney.”
Advertisement
Dom: Drance’s chances increase heavily with home-ice advantage, plus the absolutely selfish hit from Jason Garrison that takes him out of the lineup. The gap between Garrison and seventh defender Aaron Rome is large. Will it have an effect on Game 3?
Computer makes noises as aggressive as Garrison’s hit in Game 2!
Dom: Harman wins Game 3 in overtime!
Drance: Crucial win, damn.
Dom: (Prepares for Harman’s narrative vengeance.)
Harman: J.T. Miller is the OT hero in a 4-3 game where he finishes with one goal, two assists and a crushing hit on Quinn Hughes for which Miller was booed for the rest of the game whenever he touched the puck. Bertuzzi was headhunting Roussel all game, but Roussel didn’t want to dance until Jannik Hansen jumped in and they squared off. Jason Garrison’s suspension is cut to one game.
Drance: Postgame quote: “That’s disappointing. We had the game right there. The good thing about playoff hockey is that you get another chance in a couple of days. We just have to focus on the next one, make sure we head back on the road with the series level.”
Harman: Bertuzzi after the game: “I wouldn’t buy tickets to Game 6 if I was a Drance fan.”
Drance: It’s a controversial reversal to be sure. The irony of a favourable disciplinary decision taking Aaron Rome out of the lineup again in a crucial series is widely noted in a fiery Tony Gallagher column, filed as a special to The Athletic.
No lineup changes for my team, as the coach seems to be happy with the way they controlled the game despite the result.
Harman: Garrison slots back in for Rome and is bumped up to the second pair while Tyler Myers is relegated to third pair duties after making a crucial turnover that led to the game-tying goal.
Dom: Harman’s changes after the stunning and frankly unprecedented reversal of Garrison’s suspension bring the two teams to very even footing for a crucial Game 4.
Game 4
Drance (Home): 56.7%
Harman (Away): 43.3%
Chance of overtime: 23.8%
Computer fans turn on as it starts heating up from calculating such a tense series.
Advertisement
Drance: In a widely shared rant on TSN 1040, Matt Sekeres comments “on the Garrison reversal file” suggesting that this “pejorative decision is an affront twice over and the overreaction both ways casts a pall on an otherwise remarkable tournament.”
Dom: Harman wins Game 4 in regulation.
Drance: Oh man … Getting grim for my team.
Harman: J.T. Miller retains his status as public enemy No. 1 with another physical game. Reddit goes wild with Jonathan Tonathan memes. Everyone gets in on the action in a 5-2 pummeling on the road
Postgame quote: “Look, momentum changes so quickly in this series. We can’t let our foot off the gas. We need to bury this one on home ice, can’t let it get back on the road.”
Drance: Postgame quotes from my head coach: “I like the way we played. We’re in the mix every game. It’s a hard league to win in. The score reads 5-2, but I think we played better in that game and in the OT loss at home then we did in the game we won.”
Team Drance coaches bump up Jovanovski to the second pair and vow to ride the top pair for 30 minutes in Game 5.
Harman: @Taj1944: “6/1 odds on Drance’s team to win the series. Rome is out of the lineup, you know what to do #easymoney.”
No lineup changes for my team.
Dom: Game 5
Harman (Home): 54.2%
Drance (Away): 45.8%
Chance of overtime: 24.3%
Computer heat begins to intensify as if it too had to be on the ice for 30 minutes.
Drance: Crucial do or die game, and the atmosphere in Vancouver is electric. There’s massive riot prevention preparations ongoing in the downtown core, as the city braces for a potential Cup deciding game.
@SatiarShah tweets: “Games like these are why we’re hockey fans.”
Dom: Drance wins Game 5 in overtime.
Drance: PHEW!
Clutch. Henrik Sedin comes up big with two assists and the game-winning triple-overtime goal in a breathless, 3-2 victory to stave off elimination and extend the series. Quinn Hughes logs 58 minutes, but is joking around in the dressing room postgame. It’s noted by opposition defender Chris Tanev that Hughes didn’t appear to break a sweat.
Advertisement
Some concern in both dressing rooms after a pair of injuries. On Drance’s side, Sami Salo was hit in the balls by a shot that deflected up into the netting, off the jumbotron, pin-balled off multiple dashers, and with seeing eyes, walloped the stalwart defender right between the legs. He’ll miss one game, the team announces.
Meanwhile, on the other side, Cory Schneider left the game with an undisclosed injury and appears to be a game-time decision for Game 6.
(Side note to Dom: Can you randomize something with 50-50 odds for whether Harman gets Schneider in Game 6 or not?)
Harman: I hate you.
Drance: I left it to chance at least!
Dom: OK I’m going to flip a coin …
Harman: A 3-2 series lead in the final after being up two games earlier. What could possibly go wrong?
Drance: Yikes! Canucks Twitter is an absolute sewer in the wake of a triple-overtime classic. Lots of concern for Schneider, as the media awaits an update on his status.
Postmedia’s Patrick Johnston is looking over the medicals for a Canucks goaltender and is expected to break the news shortly …
@JasonBroughTSN tweets: “I hate sports.”
Dom: Which will it be for Cory Schneider?
Harman: Lineup changes for my team: Daniel onto the first line, swapped with Miller. Evenly distributed increase in ice time so 4L only plays eight minutes. Edler and Hamhuis swap pairs.
Drance: As Canucks Twitter waits for a Schneider update with bated breath, @WholeGrainne unveils a new T-shirt design of Henrik Sedin’s OT winner, with proceeds benefitting the BC Children’s Hospital. Henrik and Daniel love the design and buy 18,000 shirts to be provided free to all fans attending Game 6. They make an additional $500,000 donation to the hospital too, because Henrik and Daniel are the best.
Harman: Daniel is mocked by Eastern media for buying a shirt that celebrates his team’s loss.
Dom: Here’s the Schneider update:
Drance: Wow!
Tweet from @RisingAction: Hearing that Cory Schneider has avoided the worst of it. And will play in Game 6.
At least 80,000 Vancouver hockey fans reply to PJ’s tweet with jokes about knowing that he’ll play, he’ll play on crutches if he has to.
Lineup change on my end, Yannick Weber in for Sami Salo.
Advertisement
Dom: Are you still pushing 30 minutes on your top pair?
Drance: Oh most definitely.
Also, Canucks coaches vow to play Henrik Sedin every possible minute. Expect him to log 27 minutes
He’ll double shift with the fourth line too, so his linemates don’t need to play more.
Dom: Beautiful, so four minutes for Malhotra?
Drance: Yep!
Dom: Game 6
Drance (Home): 60.1%
Harman (Away): 39.9%
Chance of overtime: 23.1%
Drance: Huuuge game.
Computer heat continues to rise, matching the fiery red locks of Schneider, who feels he owes it to his team and city to play tonight.
Dom: Drance wins Game 6 in regulation.
Drance: Yes!
We’re getting Game 7, baby, single-game elimination! The best.
Henrik Sedin with an epic, decisive performance. Shifting between various lines, he sets up the only goal in the game in the back half of the third period. After controlling play all game and being unable to beat Schneider – who puts in a heroic 43-save performance – the Canucks finally break through when Henrik sends a cross-seam pass to Tanner Pearson for the game-winner with 8:54 to play.
Harman: Tweet from @JDylanBurke: GM Dayal’s brutal cap management left him with depth that otherwise undermines elite talent. A shame really if that’d be the deciding factor
Drance: Do I get bonus points for not injuring or suspending all of Harman’s team this time?
Dom: You tried to take out his best player!!!! 😂
Harman: After already taking out my best D-man!
Drance: I left it to chance!
@Mirtle tweets: “My family in B.C. is riveted by this series. Great showcase for the sport,” while Dan Murphy posts a selfie postgame of Tanner Pearson and his dog Emma, who won the intermission Game 6 dog race. “Couple of heroes and also Tanner Pearson,” reads the caption.
Harman: Jeff Paterson implores my team to “doooo something.”
Advertisement
Drance: Kevin Bieksa postgame refers to J.T. Miller as “Jonathan Tonathan or whatever his name is.”
Asked for his response, Elias Pettersson asks “Who is Bieksa?”
Harman: @Taj1944 tweets: “Time to double down. Like I said, #easymoney.”
Game 7 lineup changes: Mitchell up to the second pair, Edler down to the bottom pair. Ice time distribution for D can be 27/27/8. Up front F distribution can be 22/20/15/5.
Drance: I’m going to flip Vrbata onto the second line with Santorelli, who moves to line three, and put Sami Salo back into the lineup.
I also am going to shift Burrows with the fourth line, so match him and Henrik’s TOI.
Harman Wait … Pettersson is going to double shift for Morrison and match Henrik’s ice time. Kesler double shifting for Richardson
Drance: Harman’s lineup indecisiveness results in another “Dooooo something” from JPat!
As Game 7 nears, the stakes for a titanic, decisive Sedin Cup clash are set. On one side, the offensive wizardry of Harman’s Canucks. On the other, the cynical, hard-scrabble approach of Drance’s. It’s a matchup of speed vs. grit, skill vs. tactical nous. The future of hockey in Vancouver hangs in the balance.
Dom: Game 7
Harman (Home): 58.2%
Drance (Away): 41.8%
Chance of overtime: 23.5%
Chance of riot: 99.9%
Drance: 99.9 percent chance of riot 😂.
Harman: Dayal vows to sell the team to Canucks Twitter if they blow the 3-1 series lead.
Tank commander Uncle Laleet would be new GM, according to reports.
Computer heat reaches 1800 degrees kelvin, the same temperature of a burning car.
Drance: As puck drop approaches, Garrett in Maple Ridge texts into TSN 1040’s inbox: “I can’t even wertch, crezy suspense. Sry texint in with voice to tax.”
Dom: 🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁
And the winner is …
Drance’s Canucks! (In regulation)!
Drance: Yes! What a comeback!
Advertisement
A scintillating matchup concludes with big games from Quinn Hughes (1G, 2A), Bo Horvat (1 G), Nick Bonino (1G, 1A) and a Christian Ehrhoff game-winner. It’s a 4-0 regulation victory, as both sides celebrate with a respectful handshake line. Henrik Sedin is named tournament MVP.
Harman: The favourites go up by two games and are then up 3-2 only to lose 4-0 on home ice. Who could have seen that coming?
Drance: The more skilled favourites that play a more appealing brand of hockey too. This was a very Canucks series.
Harman: Henrik tells Daniel to kiss the ring. Bieksa asks Kesler if he wants to start a “Juice and Cupless” podcast. Roberto Luongo runs over Cory Schneider with a golf cart.
Uncle Laleet assumes control of the Harman Canucks and trades Tyler Myers in his first move as GM.
Drance: “Canucks defeat Canucks, Vancouver celebrates peacefully,” reads newspaper headline.
Dom: “Dom’s model wrong again, predicting 99.9 percent chance of riot,” reads The Athletic comments section.
Drance: @TheStanchion tweets: “That series reminded me of the Kane vs. Undertaker Hell in a Cell match. It was great, it was dramatic, but like why are they fighting, they’re family!”
Harman: Multiple variations of “Canucks defeat shows why analytics will never work” articles run all over the national media sphere.
Drance: The Armies headline: Henrik Sedin – the ultimate champion, Luongo’s recaptured magic and the Uncle Laleet thing.
@Taj1944 tweets: “Should have played Rome. Unforgivable. #jms.”
Harman: @Taj1944 replies to that tweet with: “I told all of you, #easymoneyyyy.”
Sedin Cup final results:
(Photo: Jeff Vinnick / Vancouver Canucks)