And then there were five. The third debate in the spirited contest for first Republican presidential alternate to Donald Trump kicks off Wednesday night at 8 p.m. It’s probably too much to say the world will be watching—the world has almost certainly seen enough of what the GOP losers’ bracket has to offer—but millions of Americans will tune in to Miami to see what the second-best of the party has on tap for Round 3. There will be crosstalk.
To qualify for the third debate, candidates had to register 4 percent in either two national polls or one national poll and two polls from separate early-voting states: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Vivek Ramaswamy and Chris Christie both, right on cue, shot up to 4 percent in a last-minute Iowa poll to lock in their debate stage appearances; Doug Burgum also hit that threshold but missed it everywhere else, so neither of his eyebrows will be in attendance. Asa Hutchinson, poor guy, also did not qualify (again), and in case you missed it, recall that Mike Pence quit while he was behind. Ramaswamy and Christie will be joined, then, by just Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, and Ron DeSantis.
It’s possible that the final five will take the occasion to debut some new and moving policy ideas. (Last debate, for instance, gave us invading Mexico.) But it’s more likely that they will train their fire on each other. Ramaswamy, who has gone subterranean on the favorability index faster than anyone on the stage—faster than any politician in recent memory—has pledged to come out more annoying than ever: “unconstrained,” one of his advisers told NBC News.
Tim Scott, whose political fortunes have also quickly gone in reverse, is pledging to go after fellow South Carolinian Nikki Haley, the only person on this circuit who has seen her line go up after national exposure, though not by much. (Haley’s support has skyrocketed from about 4 percent on average before the first debate to roughly 9 percent.) Scott plans to attack Haley for being insufficiently conservative, which owes an intellectual debt of gratitude to his earlier debate stage comments about how the Great Society—the 1960s-era legislative agenda that created Medicare and other antipoverty programs—was worse than slavery for the Black community in America.
What comes out of Ron DeSantis’ mouth could get less attention than what he’s got on his feet. DeSantis has had a quiet news cycle since the last debate, with his only real national breakthrough coming in the form of some viral video content about his strangely contoured cowboy boots. Politico quickly capped off that frenzy by determining that the Florida governor is almost certainly wearing height lifts. His walk to the podium will be closely monitored; plenty of internet sleuths will be keeping watch to see if he’s having a harder time than usual seeing over the podium.
The polling trendline indicates that Haley is primed to pass DeSantis for second at any second, which actually may matter. In the recent deluge of national polls, almost all of which look pretty favorable for presumptive nominee Donald Trump, there appears to be some pretty considerable downside risk if Trump is ultimately found guilty and sent to jail in any of his many ongoing legal cases. Then, say the voters, Trump will have finally gone too far, and they’ll have to reconsider. That outcome is not inconceivable, and if Republicans are forced to abandon their man in the slammer, one of these candidates may ultimately have to pick up the mantle and run against Joe Biden.
There remains one more debate after this. But it’s probably time to get ready to say your goodbyes to at least two of the five remaining. The Iowa caucus, after all, is on Jan. 15—which is closer than it may feel. If you’re a Ramaswamyhead, or a Scott fanatic, you should probably watch the entire two-hour block to its conclusion. There might not be another chance.
