In brief
The president, Evariste Ndayishimiye, will remain in office for his entire term, which runs until 2027. The regime will continue to curb democratic freedoms and suppress political dissent, leading to intermittent protests, but this will not pose a threat to overall stability. Policy— underpinned by an ongoing IMF deal—will focus on containing still high inflation, fiscal consolidation and strengthening of foreign-exchange reserves. Progress, however, will be slow, reflecting widespread corruption, and lack of regulatory transparency. Real GDP growth will accelerate in 2024-25, driven by strong government spending and investment in capital projects and by increasing mining and agricultural sector export earnings. Growth, will remain below potential, however, as resumption of budgetary inflows from the EU remains constrained by slow growth in the euro zone.
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Economic growth
(% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
---|---|---|---|
US GDP | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.6 |
Developed economies GDP | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
World GDP | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.6 |
World trade | -0.3 | 2.4 | 3.3 |
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit |
Inflation indicators
(% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
---|---|---|---|
US CPI | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 |
Developed economies CPI | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Manufactures (measured in US$) | 3.4 | 2.2 | 2.5 |
Oil (Brent; US$/b) | 71.1 | 68.1 | 66.7 |
Non-oil commodities (measured in US$) | 0.4 | 1.4 | 2.5 |
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit |
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Financial variables
(% unless otherwise indicated) | |||
2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
---|---|---|---|
US$ 3-month commercial paper rate (av; %) | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
¥ 3-month money market rate (av; %) | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
¥:US$ (av) | 107.8 | 105.3 | 104.8 |
Rmb:US$ (av) | 6.84 | 6.75 | 6.78 |
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit |